I’m as hysterical as the next guy in the Trinity Brewhouse basement about Providence’s placement on the S-curve, the official list of teams from 1 to 68. Drop a competitive game in a pre-season tournament? Oh no, seeding. Bracket Matrix has Providence as an 8; is this thing updated? 15th in the February reveal instead of 14th? OUTRAGE.
See the StatsFriar Bracket on Bracket Matrix
Seeding is critical. But a higher seed isn’t preferable to a favorable match-up. So how much does a team’s seed really matter, particularly when comparing similar seed lines?
Let’s start with the most straightforward scenario, first round winning percentage:
No real surprises, the slope of the line is constant and downward. The difference in winning percentage between sequential seed lines is marginal. Line to line there isn’t a big difference, but as you move further down the bracket the disadvantage adds up.
Here is win percentage in the Round of 32. This one is worth pondering, as there are a few surprises. Most importantly, it underscores the overwhelming advantage possessed by a 1 seed. So if the expectation for your program is to make the 2nd weekend, then the 8/9 game really is best avoided.
But that’s where conventional understanding breaks down. Look at the performances of seed lines 10 through 12. Winning the first round game is less likely than the pick ’em nature of an 8/9. But if you do win the first round game, suddenly your odds are similar to a 5 or 6, and better than a 7.
Finally, here is the all-round win percentage by seed. I’m surprised by the relative uniformity across lines. Being a 1 or a 2 is still a significant advantage. But from there, it drops off. So much that the difference in winning percentage through the middle of the bracket, lines 5 through 11, is just 15% from the top to the bottom.
Just an average of .025 in winning percentage separates one seed line to the next, or just .050 across two seed lines. For example, 5 seeds have an overall tournament winning percentage of .530. But that’s only 6% more than the winning percentage of 7 seeds at .470.
The data suggests that unless you’re a real national title contender, placement on the S-curve isn’t nearly as important as the specific match-up confronted. This isn’t necessarily a surprise, however the extent to which this appears to be true is notable.
Mid Major Opponents when it matters the most
Let’s look at post-realignment Big East performance in the NCAA Tournament, specifically advancement to the Sweet 16. The evidence is that unless you’re peak Villanova, advancement was probably furthered by an upset in your pod.
Everyone but Marquette and St. John’s has won at least one NCAA game since 2013. Five teams represent the 10 total appearances in the Sweet 16:
Villanova (5 times), Xavier (twice), Butler, Creighton & Providence
And here is how everyone that’s not Villanova got there:
Butler’s appearance in 2017 came at the expense of Winthrop and Middle Tennessee, who beat 5-seeded Minnesota.
Xavier didn't make the Sweet 16 as a 1 seed or a 2 seed, when they lost to Florida State and Wisconsin. But they made it as a 6 seed, when they faced Georgia State, 48th on the S-curve, that picked off Baylor in the 1st round.
Creighton’s first Sweet 16 appearance ever finally came during the Covid tournament in 2021. They broke through after their 15th(!) attempt when they beat UCSB and then 13th seeded Ohio that had upset Virginia.
And of course Providence’s first Sweet 16 in 25 years came after facing bid stealer Richmond, who had upset Big 10 Champion Iowa.
Not that it’s impossible. Xavier's run to the Elite 8 in 2017 as an 11-seed was remarkable. They finished losing six of seven in conference, with only a win over DePaul. Xavier then beat a 6 seed, 3 seed and 2 seed before finally falling to 1 seed Gonzaga in the regional final.
25 years later
On a Providence-centric podcast last season, I heard about PC’s “history of unlucky draws” in the NCAA Tournament. The hosts weren't wrong; Dayton on a home court, UNC twice in three years, and then a Texas A&M team with unusual size against a Providence roster that could only play small.
But a Providence fan of my generation doesn’t necessarily feel that way. Because the Friars caught a major break when they drew 14-seed Chattanooga in the Sweet 16 in 1997. This game followed one of the greatest performances in team postseason history, when Providence overwhelmed a Duke team with Trajan Langdon, Jeff Capel and Steve Wojciechowski in the round of 32.
Even if the Friars weren’t part of your worldview in 1997, you know the story. They advanced to the Elite 8 and lost in overtime to eventual national champion Arizona, the first (and only) team to defeat three 1 seeds. Mike Bibby and Miles Simon. Jamel Thomas’ corner 3, God Shammgod and the free throw line jumper that back rimmed; an image that I can’t erase from my mind.
What you might not know (or recall) is that against Chattanooga, Providence wasn't good. They were sluggish - Croshere was in foul trouble and PC fell behind in the 2nd half. Shammgod eventually rescued them, but how fortunate that the opponent was Chattanooga. Because had it been Tubby Smith’s Georgia team (who Chattanooga beat in the 1st round) or Lon Kruger’s Illinois team (2nd round), Providence most surely would have lost. But just when they needed it, they had an easy draw. And Pete Gillen knew it.
So don’t worry about the seed. Just get in, and wait. Eventually, the match-up will come your way.
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